- Bitcoin fell to a two-year low following the collapse of FTX and this led to a decline in investors’ conviction
- Long-held BTCs are moving addresses
With the general cryptocurrency market taking a stab at recovery following the collapse of FTX, on-chain data seems to suggest that long-held Битцоин [БТЦ] has started to see some activity.
Читати Предвиђање цене биткоина [БТЦ]. 2023-2024
In light of favorable macro factors, when long-held crypto-assets change hands, this usually indicates that dormancy on the coin’s network is starting to dissipate and a significant price rally is imminent.
However, in the current market, a closer look at on-chain data revealed that investors’ decisions to move previously dormant BTC coins were borne out of fear and lack of conviction.
Old hands awakening
Према аналитичару ЦриптоКуант-а Wenry, BTC’s Average Dormancy is at its highest level since February. This metric measures the average period that every coin remains dormant from the time it was last traded. A spike in this metric indicates a rally in coin distribution.
Wenry noted that in the past, this metric usually rose “during the first technical rebound after a large price drop.” BTC traded at a two-year low due to the collapse of FTX and it has since attempted to recover. However, before this could be taken as conclusive proof of a first “technical rebound,” Wenry warned,
“If $BTC, which has not moved for a long time for a few days, moves and there is a stronger movement in the corresponding indicator in the future, it is judged that it is necessary to focus more on risk management from a trading perspective.”
Извор: ЦриптоКуант
Also, Glassnode, in a new извештај, found that BTC’s Spent Volume Age Bands (SVAB) hit their highest level since the beginning of the year. The SVAB metric revealed that just 4% of all coins spent last week were sourced from coins older than three months. According to the on-chain analytics platform,
“This relative magnitude is coincident with some of the largest in history, often seen during capitulation events and wide-scale panic events.”
Извор: Глассноде
Glassnode further observed that uncertainty permeated the minds of BTC long-term HODLers. The same, it said, has been “prompting the changing of hands, and/or shuffling of coins by longer-term investors.”
Finally, an assessment of BTC’s Spent Old Coin Volume older than 6 Months revealed that the metric hit its fifth-highest value in the last five years.
“In the time since FTX collapsed, a total of 254k BTC older than 6-months have been spent, equivalent to around 1.3% of the circulating supply. On a 30-day change basis, this is the steepest decline in older coin supply since the Jan 2021 bull run, where long-term investors were taking profits in the bull market.”
Извор: Глассноде
It is, however, too soon to say how these observations across datasets will affect Bitcoin’s value on the charts going forward.
Source: https://ambcrypto.com/bitcoin-btc-some-conviction-and-a-lot-of-changing-hands-is-a-sign-of/