Битцоин држи 20 долара док флертује са неутралном фјучерс премијом први пут у 6 месеци

After 66 agonizing days, Bitcoin (BTC) price finally broke above the psychological resistance level at $20,000 on Jan. 14. At the same time, the current $400 billion market capitalization gives BTC a position among the top 20 global tradable assets, surpassing giants like Walmart (WMT), Mastercard (MA) and Meta Platforms (META).

С једне стране, бикови биткоина имају разлога за славље након што се његова цена опоравила за 34% са најниже вредности од 15,500 долара 21. новембра, али медведи и даље имају предност у дужем временском оквиру пошто је БТЦ пао за 52% за 12 месеци.

Traditional finance investors this week will be closely watching United States retail sales data set for release on Jan. 18, as well as fourth-quarter earnings reports from Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS), Netflix (NFLS) and Procter & Gamble (PG).

In the cryptocurrency markets, there is mild relief stemming from some unexpected places — or people. Crypto entrepreneur Justin Sun is reportedly interested in стицање assets from the troubled Digital Currency Group (DCG), the parent company of the crypto lender Genesis and the Grayscale funds’ administrator.

On Jan. 16, Binance exchange launched its off-exchange settlement solution for institutional investors. The regulated digital asset custodial services enable additional security, allowing investors access to the exchange ecosystem without needing to deposit directly on the platform.

Another positive piece of news came from Bitcoin’s mining difficulty rising 10.26% on Jan. 15, reflecting higher competition for block subsidies — typically a bullish indicator for the industry. This increases network security, but more importantly, it shows that miners can find strategic energy sources and are committed to the long-term investment required for Bitcoin mining.

Хајде да погледамо метрику Битцоин деривата да бисмо боље разумели како су професионални трговци позиционирани у тренутним тржишним условима.

The Asia-based stablecoin premium drops to a 6-month low

Кованица долара (USDC) премиум је добар показатељ потражње крипто малопродајних трговаца у Кини. Он мери разлику између равноправних трговина у Кини и америчког долара.

Прекомерна потражња за куповином има тенденцију да притисне индикатор изнад фер вредности на 100%, а током медвеђих тржишта, тржишна понуда стабилног цоина је преплављена, узрокујући попуст од 4% или више.

Currently, the USDC premium stands at 97.5%, down from 100% two weeks prior, indicating lesser demand for stablecoin buying from Asian investors. The data gained relevance after the 24% rally between Jan. 7 and Jan. 14, as one would expect a much higher demand from retail traders.

However, this data is not necessarily bearish because traders could be dumping stablecoins due to increased regulatory risks.

The futures premium is finally displaying neutral sentiment

Retail traders usually avoid quarterly futures due to their price difference from spot markets. But professional traders prefer these instruments because they prevent the fluctuation of funding rates in a трајни фјучерс уговор.

Двомесечна премија фјучерса на годишњем нивоу требало би да се тргује између +4% и +8% на здравим тржиштима како би се покрили трошкови и повезани ризици. Дакле, када се фјучерси тргују испод таквог распона, то показује недостатак поверења код купаца левериџа - типично, индикатор медведа.

The above chart shows positive momentum for the Bitcoin futures premium, now flirting with the neutral premium at 4% — the highest in five months. This indicator represents a drastic change from the backwardation, the bearish sentiment that had prevailed from the collapse of FTX in November until the first days of 2023.

Bitcoin’s $20,000 support needs a retest

While the seemingly effortless rally to $20,000 looks encouraging, it hasn’t been recently tested as a support level. At the same time, the absence of a stablecoin premium in Asia displays a lack of demand from retail buyers. However, the current 2.5% discount does not reflect discomfort or distress from sellers.

Релатед: Битцоин на ланцу и технички подаци почињу да сугеришу да је дно цене БТЦ-а унутра

This data supports the thesis that Bitcoin needs to test the $20,000 support to prove to investors that regardless of how the stock market behaves, the bearish sentiment caused by FTX and Digital Currency Group contagion risks је иза нас.

There is still a chance that macroeconomic data will favor the continuation of a bull run, so either way could sustain the positive momentum.