Цене алткоина су се накратко опоравиле, али метрике деривата предвиђају погоршање услова

On May 12, the total crypto market capitalization reached its lowest close in 10 months and the metric continues to test the $1.23 trillion support level. However, the following seven days were reasonably calm while Bitcoin (BTC) gained 3.4% and Ether (ETH) added a modest 1.5%. Presently, the aggregate crypto cap stands at $1.31 trillion.

Укупна крипто тржишна капитализација, милијарде УСД. Извор: ТрадингВиев

Ripples from Terra’s (LUNA) collapse continue to impact crypto markets, especially the decentralized finance industry. Moreover, the recent decline in traditional markets has led to a loss of $7.6 trillion in market cap from the Nasdaq Stock Market Index, which is higher than the dot-com bubble and the March 2020 sell-offs.

On May 17, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell confirmed their intention to suppress inflation by raising interest rates but he cautioned that the Fed’s tightening movement could impact the unemployment rate.

The bearish sentiment spilled to crypto markets and the “Fear and Greed Index,” a data-driven sentiment gauge, hit 8/100 on May 17. This is the metric’s lowest value since March 28, 2020, two weeks after the generalized crash that sent oil futures to negative levels and brought Bitcoin (BTC) below $4,000.

Испод су победници и поражени из протеклих седам дана. Док су две водеће криптовалуте имале скромне добитке, шачица алтцоина са средњом капитализацијом порасла је за 15% или више.

Недељни победници и губитници међу 80 најбољих новчића. Извор: Номицс

Монеро (КСМР) rallied 22% as investors awaited the “tail emission” to be implemented at block 2,641,623 or sometime around June 4. The community одлучио to include a 0.6 XMR minimum reward in every block, so miners are not 100% reliant on transaction fees.

Цосмос (ATOM) gained 16.5%, a movement that seems a part of a broader retracement that started on May 12 when ATOM fell to its eleven-month low near $8. It is worth noting that its parent chain, Cosmos Hub, witnessed massive capital outflows from its liquidity pools, according to reporting from Cointelegraph.

Klaytn (KLAY), a blockchain-backed by South Korean internet giant Kakao, announced on May 16 that it would provide infrastructure, and initial nodes, and develop early use cases for the Blockchain-based Service Network (BSN), providing an entry into the Chinese market

The Tether premium shows slight discomfort

ОККС Тетхер (УСДТ) premium is a good gauge of China-based retail trader crypto demand. It measures the difference between China-based peer-to-peer (P2P) trades and the United States dollar.

Прекомерна потражња за куповином има тенденцију да притисне индикатор изнад фер вредности на 100%, а током медвеђих тржишта, Тетхерова тржишна понуда је преплављена и узрокује попуст од 4% или више.

Тетхер (УСДТ) пеер-то-пеер у односу на УСД/ЦНИ. Извор: ОККС

The Tether premium peaked at 5.4% on May 12, its highest level in more than six months, but the movement could have been related to the Terra ecosystem’s massive outflows, which were mainly the USD Terra (UST) stablecoin.

More recently, the indicator showed a modest deterioration as it currently holds a 1.8% discount. The lack of retail demand is not especially concerning because the total cryptocurrency market capitalization lost 34% in the past month.

Altcoin futures reflect disinterest in leverage

Вјечни уговори, познати и као инверзне замјене, имају уграђену стопу која се обично наплаћује сваких осам сати. Берзе користе ову провизију да би избегле неравнотеже девизног ризика.

Позитивна стопа финансирања указује на то да дугови (купци) захтевају више полуге. Међутим, супротна ситуација се дешава када шортс (продавци) захтевају додатну полугу, због чега стопа финансирања постаје негативна.

Accumulated perpetual futures funding rate on May 20. Source: Coinglass

Perpetual contracts are reflecting mixed sentiment as Bitcoin and Ethereum hold a slightly positive (bullish) funding rate, but altcoins signal the opposite. For example, Solana’s (SOL) negative 0.35% weekly rate equals 1.5% per month, which is not a concern for most derivatives traders.

Considering that derivatives indicators are showing little improvement, there’s a lack of trust from investors as the total crypto market capitalization battles to keep the $1.23 trillion support. Until this sentiment improves, the odds of an adverse price movement remain high.

Овдје приказана стајалишта и мишљења су искључиво становишта аутор и не одражавају нужно ставове Цоинтелеграфа. Сваки потез улагања и трговања укључује ризик. Приликом доношења одлуке требало би да спроведете сопствено истраживање.