Молсон Цоорс добија још једну надоградњу засновану на Буд Лигхт-у

The move comes as Nelson expects that “another earnings beat and full-year guidance raise now appears highly likely given the dramatic recent market share gains across North America for the company’s key Miller Lite and Coors Light brands (+13% in the past two months) from the ongoing consumer backlash against competitor Bud Light.”

There has been some debate about how long Molson Coors’ brands can benefit from the Bud Light brouhaha—in which the brand’s partnership with transgender influencer Dylan Mulvaney sparked a backlash. Subsequent AB InBev (ticker: BUD) management decisions worsened the situation—even among the company’s own distributors.

Yet Nelson argues the boost looks sustainable, and the earnings impact of the situation remains underappreciated by investors. He raised his full-year Molson Coors earnings estimates for this year and next to $4.85 and $4.95, respectively, up from $4.55 and $4.70 previously.

He isn’t alone. On Tuesday, BofA Securities upgraded Molson Coors as well, albeit to Neutral, citing the market share gains. One week ago, TD Cowen analyst Vivien Azer reiterated her bullish stance on Molson Coors, citing its durable market-share momentum. 

That said, AB InBev’s bulls aren’t backing down either. That is largely because both AB InBev and Molson Coors can still be winners in a global sense. As Баррон је has previously noted, Bud Light’s blunders look like a tempest in a teapot, given AB InBev’s worldwide growth. The Wall Street Journal has also highlighted the buying opportunity.

“Consider that the volume decline in the U.S. in the first three weeks of April amounted to roughly 1% of [AB InBev’s global volume.] The incident is strictly a United States issue,” Gimme Credit’s Dave Novosel wrote Friday.

He notes the company only gets some 28% of sales from North America and an even smaller portion from the U.S.

“Of all of its geographic segments we project that North America will be the lowest growing region in 2023, with South America and the Middle Americas supplying the majority of the increase,” Novosel wrote. “We estimate that AB InBev will generate almost $62 billion in revenue this year so it can easily absorb a hit of this magnitude.”

Meanwhile, lost in the culture wars is the fact that AB InBev’s global organic growth trajectory looks intact, while cooling inflation looks set to improve margins and the company’s leverage is declining as it is paying down debt.

All those factors led Novosel to confirm his Buy recommendation on the shares, as well as some optimism about the future.

“We think it is likely that many of those displaced Bud Light drinkers will return, particularly if the company refuses to forge a position in the controversy and focuses more on the characteristics of the beer itself,” Novosel wrote.

Or as Homer Simpson so succinctly said, “Here’s to alcohol: the cause of, and solution to, all of life’s problems.”

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