Овако изгледа спори позоришни опоравак

Да, Светлосна година earned just $50.5 million in its disappointing Fri-Sun domestic debut, which along with an $83 million global cume seems to put the $200 million Тои Стори spin-off/relaunch/etc. on the path to around $300 million global. If it legs out here and abroad, well, good. Even if the worst happens, and honestly this feels like Соло: Прича о звезданим ратовима all over again, an animated film still opened with $50 million last weekend. It marked the first time since June of 2013 that (alongside Јурассиц Ворлд Доминион Топ Гун: Маверицк) we’ve had three films all earning over $40 million. This weekend sees the release of Елвис Црни телефон. It’s all but certain that we’ll have four films earning at least $20 million. We could see five such films for the first time since July of 2016. This is what a theatrical recovery looks like.

A return to something approximating normalcy will not be a world where every tentpole connects and every “regular” movie pulls in decent grosses alongside the tentpoles. Competition from streaming, the convenience of at-home viewing and a studio push toward VOD and shorter theatrical windows had already created a new normal where a much larger percentage of domestic moviegoers spent more of their money a much smaller number of “event movies.” In 2018, the top seven movies (Црни пантер, Осветници: Рат бесконачности, Incredibles 2, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, Aquaman, Deadpool 2 Гринч) accounted for $3 billion, or 26% of the $11.6 billion-sized pie. And the acclaimed Гаме Нигхт was seen as borderline miraculous for passing $100 million even as five years earlier the mediocre Ми смо Милерови could crack $275 million without breaking a sweat. Studio programmers struggled before Covid, and they will after Covid.

What we’ve seen since May of 2021, when Мирно место ИИ део still earned about as much ($160 million domestic from a $57 million Fri-Mon debut and $297 million worldwide) as it might have in March of 2020, the tentpoles that would have succeeded in normal times have mostly succeeded in 2021 and 2022. Нема времена за смрт earned $774 million global, Батман cracked $770 million, Доктор Странге КСНУМКС cleared $945 million and Сониц тхе Хедгехог КСНУМКС is nearing $400 million. Several biggies, like Фрее Гуи (330 милиона долара), Годзилла Вс. Конг (469 милиона долара), Спајдермен: Нема пута кући (1.9 милијарда долара), Унцхартед (400 милиона долара), Све свуда одједном (84 милиона долара) и Топ Гун: Маверицк ($900 million-and-counting) have overperformed pre-Covid expectations. Even Warner Bros.’ tentpole misses (Тхе Матрик Ресуррецтионс, Тхе Суициде Скуад Спаце Јам: Нова оставштина) were commercial question marks before “Project Popcorn.”

Да буде фер, Том и Џери Годзилла Вс. Конг essentially saved movie theaters and Дина overperformed with $400 million worldwide. Disney’s Светлосна година was also a question mark before Covid. It was a cynical IP exploitation, and the constant attempts to overexplain what was just “a Pixar sci-fi actioner featuring Buzz Lightyear” created years of (somewhat performative) confusion among the perpetually online. Sure, I would argue that Disney’s decision to send Душа, Лука Турнинг Ред to Disney+ made Светлосна година seem less theater-worthy, but Disney didn’t have to send Лука (in June of 2020) and Турнинг Ред (in April of 2021) to streaming. That was a *choice* intended to goose Disney’s stock at a time when Wall Street was drinking the “streaming is everything” Kool-Aid, just as it was a choice to treat Шарм’s theatrical release as a glorified sneak preview for the Disney+ debut.

A big reason theatrical doesn’t quite feel “back and better than ever” is because of the sheer lack of theatrical releases being offered on the regular. Спајдермен: Нема пута кући coasted through January and early February thanks to no Oscar season breakouts (part of the “regular movies are still struggling” issue) and a near-total lack of comparative tentpole competition. Sony moved Jared Leto’s commercially dicey Морбиус to April (which boosted Унцхартед in February), leaving just Вриштати to rule in January. March lost Guy Ritchie’s Операција Фортуне (still unreleased) and Disney’s Турнинг Ред and was left with only Батман Изгубљени град. April was pleasantly packed (Morbius, Sonic 2, the always doomed Фантастичне звери КСНУМКС, Ambulance, The Northman, The Bad Guys, etc.) but May had just Доктор Странге КСНУМКС Топ Гун КСНУМКС with two smaller flicks (Довнтон Аббеи 2 Фирестартер) између.

There are a handful of reasons why the movie slate looks so slight. There’s still a Covid-caused post-production crunch that kept films like Црна Адам out of the summer. Studio programmers like Jennifer Lopez’s Схотгун Веддинг and Kevin Hart’s Човек из Торонта are still being sold to streamers. Decisions made back when streaming was seen as a miracle cure are still in play, which means (for example) Disney’s terrific Чип и Дејл: Спасилачки ренџери and Warner’s enjoyable enough Отац Бриде remake are streaming premieres. There’s an entire slate of “studio programmers” courtesy of 20th Century Studios (The Valet, Fire Island, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, The Princess, Not Okay Prey) that might have been theatrical but is now Hulu-bound. All of this combines to create a scenario where the biggest threat to theatrical isn’t Covid but rather the lack of theatrical movies.

I hope Paramount’s miraculous comeback, Sony’s verbal commitment to old-school windows and Warner Bros. Discovery’s David Zaslov allegedly committing to 20-25 theatricals per year means we’ve turned a corner. That theatrical is still seen as on the ropes (and that overall revenue is still down from 2019) is due to a lack of regular mid-level theatrical product (bless A24 and Universal/Focus on this front) alongside industry and media that seem rooting for failure. Restaurants aren’t dealing with industry leaders and media types rooting for consumers to just stay home and order in. We’ve had consistent evidence over the last year that big movies still make big bucks in theaters. We had three films earning $40 million last weekend and may see five films gross $20 million this weekend. The message has been clear: If you release them, audiences will come and see them.