(Bloomberg) — U.S. equity-index futures declined, and European stocks wobbled, after the Federal Reserve signaled a delicate balancing act that would see inflation-busting rate hikes continue despite a weakening economy.
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September contracts on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 slid at least 0.3% after the underlying benchmarks posted losses on Wednesday. The two-year Treasury yield, the most sensitive to monetary tightening, fluctuated as investors parsed some dovish elements in the minutes of the Fed’s latest meeting. The dollar rose for a second day and was on course for the biggest weekly gain since June 10.
While policy makers warned against over-tightening and signaled the potential for slower rate increases at some point, they also flagged the risk of inflation pressures becoming entrenched. The nuanced messaging wasn’t dovish enough for markets to sustain a risk-on stance into Thursday. Caution was the byword of the moment with further clues awaited at the Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming next week.
“People are a little overly optimistic about how likely it is that we can solve the inflation problem quickly and in a way where we don’t have to include more policy and more rising rates,” Kathryn Kaminski, AlphaSimplex Group chief research strategist and portfolio manager, said on Bloomberg Television.
Swaps tied to Fed policy meeting dates indicated lower odds of a 75 basis points hike next month as opposed to a half-point move. Expectations of slower policy tightening and a pivot to cuts later next year have already contributed to a 12% jump in global stocks from June lows. The question is whether that’s too optimistic. A darker scenario may entail persistent price pressures forcing restrictive borrowing costs amid a shrinking economy
Europe’s Stoxx 600 index made a muted opening as stocks tied to economic growth such as raw-material companies, banks and industrial-goods makers slid. Concerns of tightening monetary conditions increased after the European Central Bank’s Governing Council member Martins Kazaks said rate hikes will continue in the region.
Treasuries struggled for direction. The two-year rate rose more than 3 basis points and fell almost 4 basis points before trading little changed. Britain’s pound and the euro fell against the dollar, signaling a continuing bid for haven assets amid worries over stagflationa.
Losses in Japan, China and a Hong Kong tech index sapped an Asian equity gauge. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists downgraded their forecast for China’s full-year expansion to 3% from 3.3%. The nation is hamstrung by a property crisis, rolling Covid curbs and stressed power supplies.
Chinese state media said local governments could sell more than $229 billion of bonds to fund infrastructure investment and plug budget gaps in a bid to shore up growth.
Crude oil was lower despite bullish signals from the US and the OPEC grouping of producers as signs of economic slowdown clouded the demand outlook. West Texas Intermediate futures traded below $88 a barrel.
Инфлација остаје индикатор који се највише прати у другом полувремену. Да ли ће се постепено смањивати или ће остати повишен, приморавајући Фед да настави агресивно да повећава стопе? Реците своје мишљење у анонимној анкети МЛИВ Пулсе.
Ево неколико кључних догађаја које треба гледати ове недеље:
Продаја постојећих кућа у САД, почетна потраживања за незапослене, водећи индекс Цонференце Боард, четвртак
Fed’s Esther George, Neel Kashkari speak at separate events, Thursday
Неки од главних потеза на тржишту:
Резерве
Стокк Еуропе 600 се мало променио од 8:27 по лондонском времену
Фјучерси на С&П 500 пали су 0.3%
Фјучерси на Насдак 100 пали су 0.4%
Фјучерси на Дов Јонес индустријском просеку пали су за 0.2%
Азијско -пацифички индекс МСЦИ пао је за 0.7%
МСЦИ индекс тржишта у развоју пао је 0.7%
Валуте
Индекс Блоомберговог долара порастао је 0.2%
Евро је пао за 0.2% на 1.0155 долара
Јапански јен пао је 0.1% на 135.19 за долар
Офшор јуан пао је 0.2% на 6.8080 за долар
Британска фунта пала је 0.3% на 1.2016 долара
Обвезнице
Принос на десетогодишње трезоре опао је за један базни поен на 10%
Немачки 10-годишњи принос порастао је за три базна поена на 1.11%
Британски 10-годишњи принос је мало промењен на 2.29%
Роба
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Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-futures-fall-stocks-pressured-234732575.html